Research Output
Analysis of Stationary and Dynamic Factors Affecting Highway Accident Occurrence
  Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit approach is adopted. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, and for unobserved heterogeneity. The results also demonstrate the potential of random parameters modeling, in terms of forecasting accuracy and explanatory power.

  • Date:

    12 January 2017

  • Publication Status:


  • Funders:

    Historic Funder (pre-Worktribe)


Fountas, G., Sarwar, M. T., Anastasopoulos, P., Blatt, A., & Majka, K. (2017). Analysis of Stationary and Dynamic Factors Affecting Highway Accident Occurrence. In TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers


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