Edinburgh Napier University

  This paper analyses the factors affecting the duration of an unemployment spell amongst a sample of exclusively long‐term unemployed individuals. The results indicate that person‐specific unemployment propensities have a significant effect on re‐employment probabilities. These effects, however, vary significantly by gender and religion. The results also indicate statistically significant negative ‘duration dependence’ effects. The evidence suggests that employers regard long unemployment durations as a ‘negative signal’ about an applicant's potential productivity. The latter implies that, in terms of government policies aimed at reducing unemployment, the demand‐side of the unemployment equation should be given greater emphasis.