Edinburgh Napier University

  We address uncertainty and confusion in value chain management through the use of recently developed phase plane and decision frontier analysis. The new methodology enables the distinction between the concept of local, self-inflicted, uncertainty and the concept of global, state of the world, uncertainty through phase plane mapping. We utilise the solution to a set of stochastic differential equations to encapsulate attitudes to uncertainty, opportunity and risk. One source of information on and targets for variability is through the method of dynamic acquisition which assists in generating expert forecasts. The forecast errors can be monitored to provide an innovative facility for mapping changes in variability which should enhance research and understanding of the mechanisms occurring in value chains. The method also addresses the need for improved network relationships as well as supporting enhanced agility