Edinburgh Napier University

  Scientific output of lower-ranked institutions is catching up with leading universities. We present a simple, conceptual model of research production describing the dynamic interaction between inputs (research staff and funding) and outputs (publications and citations). Results support an ‘emergent’ phase of science with elite leading universities, evolving to a ‘mature’ phase of consolidation, standardization, and catch-up of follower universities. Productivity differences between senior and junior researchers and the ‘start-up’ costs of research equipment may explain this, together with advances in information technology. Improved detection and support of emergent sciences may be achieved by specialized data analysis and directed research funding.